Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Earth Abides



Earth Abibes is a 1949 post-apocalyptic sci-fi novel by American writer George R. Stewart. It tells the story of the fall of civilization from deadly disease and its rebirth. Beginning in the United States in the 1940s, it deals with Isherwood (Ish) Williams, Emma, and the community they founded. The survivors live off the remains of the old world, while learning to adapt to the new. I just finished listening to this audiobook and although it was not my favorite of the genre, it did make me take pause at one sentence:
"they had specialized to a point where they could not adapt to the changing conditions"

Sound familiar at all? Have we specialized to a point where we cannot adapt to the changing conditions? How many of us would be able to adapt to the following conditions:
1. Significant personal financial loss
2. Cessation of relied-upon services like electricity, water/sewer, natural gas, schooling?
3. What happens if your local grocery cannot stock items you rely upon or your local gas station no longer has fuel?
4. Your doctor is out of your required medication due to shortages?

I only offer a mere few examples of the plethora or permutations available for discussion... but the focus for me is not necessarily on what the event might be, but how do I prepare myself to adapt to changing conditions. In business, using sole-source contracts for critical components introduces significant risks to the company- what happens if the supplier of the most important part of your widget goes out of business- you are in a bind. Frame this scenario individually- what happens when you become comfortable relying on a sole source or method for the delivery of the most fundamental necessities of your life- once again we see a high risk.

I have often thought of developing a "preparedness rating" model to determine individual and collective levels of preparedness or ability to adapt to changing conditions. Simple inputs would yield a ranking along a preparedness continuum. Perhaps we use a ranking like Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs as seen below
. Thoughts?

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